Simulation Adjustments for 2023

[bbrown85]

Hey Commish,

I apologize if this sounds like a gripe session but that's not my intention but I do feel particularly close to this sim situation that you're speaking about and I thank you for leaving it open for adjustments and feedback.

Tua is my quarterback and he was hurt going into the playoffs. I understand that is the situation that my team has and I roll with that. But, I have Chase Daniel as my backup quarterback. My issue here is that going into Wild Card weekend, given how that stats are played out (Daniel's 2022 season stats were 8-12, 52 yards and one touchdown), my team never really had a shot at winning that game, as evidenced by the 52-3 beatdown that occurred. Daniel finished 16-31, 56 yards and zero touchdowns. I think that we should look at this particular situation as a blueprint on how to fix the backup quarterback situation. I'm not asking for Tua's seasons averages to be put in if he's hurt but to keep the competition aspect in the game, I do believe we have to come up with a better solution. I think my team is talented enough as a whole to score more than three points (even with a backup QB), while also not giving up fifty-two points.

[Goodell]

Yeah, definitely want to have some conversation on this before the new season. Most of the complaints I've received have been in the other direction with people thinking backup QBs did better than they should here. We've had some sim teams with great grades otherwise win sim championships with backup QBs here over the years. I definitely think in this overall roster building game that teams should still be able to compete even if having a backup QB play. But that doesn't mean they are guaranteed victory over a team with better grades and/or elite QB on the other side. We have to have a balance I think where grades matter a ton in a roster-building game but also ensure an elite QB is super valuable as it is in reality.

I posted some potential adjustments to the game play in the previous message. Whether we adjust to that or something like that, I want to make sure grades overall are super important and that elite grade teams can still win with backup QBs, but the quality of that backup QB is also important in that if you have a horribly graded cheap backup QB without grades he isn't as likely to do as well as a much higher graded backup QB or with better stats.

I have to find the right line for those stats, as I think half the league wants backup/default stats to be horrible and allow backups to win tons of games against NFL starters, and others like your post want strongly graded teams to still have a shot and their season not be over if a QB gets hurt. So will keep looking on that and welcoming feedback into that, and make some adjustments this season there.

[bbrown85]

I appreciate that and I'm open to having a better grasp on the sim moving forward so I'm open to feedback as well. Of course, if a team has a highly rated (healthy) quarterback, they should have that advantage but it should still be somewhat competitive from the other position groupings if they match up well.

I am but one humble servant in the world of FanGM, I'll see y'all in the playoffs! (If TuaMan is healthy)

Best of luck to everyone in 2023!

[bpboguta1483]

I did a breakdown of Chase Daniels NFL starts (starts only) some interesting numbers

[bpboguta1483]

Game averages 22-32-216-1-1-69.4% pct, 91.4 qb rating, would be nice to be able to breakdown a qb's numbers and use it as a sim if the system allows that, the stats and game logs courtesy of pro football reference. And then of course the adjustments in the weekly sim for better or worse.

[Ben C.]

Did you come up with any changes to the default kicker update?

I currently don’t have a kicker on an NFL roster (despite having 3-4 in my fanulation training camp kicker competition), and I’d like to know what I may be dealing with if I don’t acquire a kicker with real stats.

[Goodell]

Did you come up with any changes to the default kicker update?

I currently don’t have a kicker on an NFL roster (despite having 3-4 in my fanulation training camp kicker competition), and I’d like to know what I may be dealing with if I don’t acquire a kicker with real stats.

Not quite yet, so perhaps not a lot of change there. Right now I think it kind of treats every attempt separately with percentages and there's logic to that, but kind of want to put in some odd random chance protections to prevent cases of unlikely misses against odds happening multiple times against real game update expectations as a coin can come up heads four times in a row sometimes despite the 50/50 odds. Overall we want to always work toward results that make the most sense in working toward game updates and less to random chance. Generally speaking it makes sense I think that most kickers should nail short FGs (unless they have a real game update with a short miss to account for) but struggle with long FGs (unless they have a real game update for long makes to account for). If a team had a poor kicker or one maybe out of the league even, it's logical I think that they'd do well with chip-shots but have much more difficulty if the offense made it a long attempt for unproven kickers with no game stats to ensure a long attempt make. Like a lot of things I just want to look at stats last year, run some sim tests and tweak a little if not getting what makes sense.