Draft Discussion 2021

[Goodell]

Crunching the numbers, I was going to throw out some data just for fun. As we have a lot of new people this year, also was going to have a place where people could reply to any draft suggestions for the future here, as we look to improve each year.

TOP 10 PLAYERS BY AVERAGE SELECTION ACROSS ALL LEAGUE DRAFTS:
Lawrence, Trevor 1.0 overall average
Lance, Trey 3.2
Fields, Justin 3.5
Sewell, Penei 4.3
Chase, JaMarr 6.0
Wilson, Zach 6.0
Pitts, Kyle 6.3
Smith, DeVonta 9.2
Slater, Rashawn 9.7
Parsons, Micah 10.3

Draft analysis is always tricky, as you can't really know until these players play and play for a couple years probably. Although in some cases, like one of my draft picks Isaiah Wilson last year, you can grade sooner than later. I'm hoping to perhaps add some grade analysis to past drafts ahead. For players from this last draft, they haven't played and no grades yet, but here are some measurements we can make from our raw data. I downloaded that after the drafts to collect the names of players from each league to turn into UDFAs today. Note that for any player undrafted in a league I assigned them draft slot 257 as being later than the other 256 players selected.

TOP 5 PLAYERS SELECTED HIGHER THAN AVERAGE POSITION ACROSS ALL LEAGUES:
AFFL - Lenoir, Deommodore; Franks, Feleipe; Hufanga, Talanoa; Moore, David; Ehlinger, Sam
CFFL - Ehlinger, Sam; Mason, Ben; Farniok, Matt; Jefferson, Jermar; Van Lanen, Cole
DFFL - Brown, Shakur; Nixon, Tre; Bledsoe, Joshuah; Stevenson, Marquez; Brightwell, Gary
EFFL - Lenoir, Deommodore; Mukuamu, Israel; Hill, Trey; Twyman, Jaylen; Mason, Ben
FFFL - Camp, Jalen; Newsome, Dazz; Menet, Michal; McDuffie, Isaiah; Van Lanen, Cole
BRFL - Harvin, Pressley; Tuipulotu, Marlon; Toney, Shaka; Marshall, Jonathan; Wiggins, James

And it's not that that is necessarily good or bad either. In some cases, these players may have been critical needs that teams addressed earlier than on average because they prioritized that player/position and didn't have many picks to wait, auto-picks, or just someone they had a stronger feeling about than others and we'll see. That's the great thing about doing the draft ourselves as fans. We don't have to just say that real pick sucks or is great, but we get to be on the clock ourselves and put our own opinions to the test.

Case in point where it's not necessarily bad, but going out on a limb a little and time will tell... It didn't make the top 5, but one of the higher profile selections way above their average slot here was my selection of Dillon Radunz with my third first round pick. Turns out he went 17 spots higher than his average selection. I'd gotten Jaycee Horn much later than most leagues (23rd) right before that so felt I had some good value in hand and had another first rounder a couple picks later so felt I could go with my gut a little there. Objectively I should have gone with Teven Jenkins there, as he went right after my pick and that was his exact average spot in hindsight. Nearly did that, but read a last minute article concerned about Jenkins not as suited for LT and the Bears probably throwing him to the wolves there starting early had that writer concerned. Also had just read a similar article about Dillon Radunz being named as one of the players going the best spots for success. Maybe also had a little to do with my last year selection of Isaiah Wilson blowing up and Dillon Radunz coming in to Tennessee's RT spot to make that all better for both the Titans and my draft ego. Or maybe I over-thought that and should have gotten higher demand Teven and then Dillon with one of my other picks after that, but I wanted to get my first choice first and see who fell after (which I was actually happy getting Landon Dickerson for the interior line instead of taking two tackles), even if it was a little early by most views. If Tevin is great and Dillon sucks, it'll be a bad decision for me. Furthermore, if Trevor Lawrence becomes HOF and Trey Lance bombs, it'll be even worse as I traded down from #1 to #2 to get Lance plus an additional first rounder that I ended up using for reaching down a little for his teammate Radunz. So we have some future drama there for how all those controversial decisions turns out, but I'm happy with it no matter how the averages show. Maybe I just like the storylines there. We'll see how everyone plays in the end.

Enough about my picks, how about the other side of the coin for players that teams got later than their average spot. Maybe that means these leagues didn't think as highly of those particular players, or maybe it represents great value steals for players sliding later than they did in other leagues.

TOP 5 PLAYERS SELECTED LATER THAN AVERAGE POSITION ACROSS ALL LEAGUES:
AFFL -Twyman, Jaylen; Van Lanen, Cole; Fitzpatrick, Dez; Marshall, Jonathan; Tuipulotu, Marlon
CFFL - McGrone, Cameron; Nasirildeen, Hamsah; Herbert, Khalil; Lenoir, Deommodore; Forsythe, Stone
DFFL - Twyman, Jaylen (undrafted); Van Lanen, Cole; Ehlinger, Sam; Book, Ian; Doaks, Gerrid
EFFL - Hill, Kylin; Newman, Jamie; Fries, Will (undrafted); Fehoko, Simi; Jefferson, Jermar
FFFL - Gowan, Tay; Felton, Demetric; Brown, Shakur (undrafted); Lenoir, Deommodore; Moses, Dylan
BRFL - Lenoir, Deommodore (undrafted); Mason, Ben (undrafted); Jefferson, Jermar (undrafted); Ehlinger, Sam (undrafted); Smith, Shi (undrafted); Brightwell, Gary (undrafted); Brown, Shakur (undrafted); Moore, David (undrafted); Williams, Seth (undrafted); Stevenson, Marquez (undrafted); Newsome, Dazz (undrafted); Johnson, Jamar; Rochell, Robert

So let me know if any thoughts on the draft, either how the selections went or just generally ideas for next year. Just know that we prioritize keeping things as real as we can and as un-fake as possible in terms of changes. We've also done different things over a decade+ doing drafts and some things have worked and some haven't as we keep enhancing.

I tried to get the tool for taking a draft queue list in one league and applying it to other teams if someone had multiple ones, but didn't quite finish that in time. Should be there for next year.

Besides looking at grades of past draft players in analyzing previous selections fairly over time, any other thoughts of what we can do with the information we have? Or anybody have any better draft storylines than mine?

[bpboguta1483]

Michael Carter RB....CFFL 63rd pick, EFFL 69th pick, Jets NFL Draft 4th round 107th pick overall I found that stunning. Carter could potentially see a lot of snaps in his rookie year, talented RB but is he an every down back? Only time will tell.

[Troy S]

Michael Carter RB....CFFL 63rd pick, EFFL 69th pick, Jets NFL Draft 4th round 107th pick overall I found that stunning. Carter could potentially see a lot of snaps in his rookie year, talented RB but is he an every down back? Only time will tell.

Yeah, RBs are going to get over-drafted here. In the NFL they kind of see them as replicable parts I think that can get worn down so their value has been lowered. For us here, though, we don't really have a productive sim RB just based upon their raw talent or speed or whatever as they sit the bench; they have to have actual stats on Sundays to be very useful here in the sim. So running backs who will get carries are probably much more valuable here. Not sure if there's anything to do about that or should or not. Actual NFL game production is critical for QBs and RBs here, and kind of think that's how it should be. Hard for the game to fairly predict great sim rushing games from a guy just sitting the bench in reality, right?

I don't know if it's good or bad (as you say time will tell) but to top your examples of over-drafting there... he went a whopping 38th overall in the AFFL. By me. 44 and 46 in a couple other leagues I think.

So arguably way over-drafted there. But knowing that RBs get picked earlier than their NFL spots and having just missed out on a RB I was targeting in the first round and had moved up to get earlier, Carter was one of the last RBs I was super interested in as someone who I thought was in line for getting a lot of opportunities with his new team to put up stats on Sundays (compared to other later RBs who have talent too for the future but maybe were more in line for backups early in their careers). Not having a real feature back on the roster and trying to get one, over-drafted to make sure I got the last one available before I felt he'd be for sure gone by my next pick 40 selections later. So kind of my last chance to get that this draft I thought and pulled the trigger early. Possibly a bad pick objectively by the draft numbers, but if he's putting up stats and making explosive plays on Sundays I'm going to be very happy with it as I really wanted to get a young back in the draft to go along with young team makeover.

The more I watched his highlights and compared his stats to even Javonte Williams in the same backfield who I hoped to get earlier (as a Broncos fan) but just missed, the more I was liking Carter for our sim backfield. He had a higher average per carry this past year and arguably he's got a bigger opportunity right out of the gates with lesser competition with the Jets than Javonte (sharing carries with Melvin Gordon). I didn't have a shot at drafting Najee Harris or Travis Etienne (or even Javonte it turns out), but wouldn't surprise me if Carter was among the top 3 rookie running backs for rookie production. And if he does that bodes well for future seasons becoming a big part of new young offense ahead. But we'll see.