2012 RULES: Default Update Feedback

[Goodell]

We've talked about wanting to take a closer look at the default updates fed into the game simulator in cases where the player doesn't have a real update because he's on the bench. In cases of byes it uses a season average replacement for real weekly game stats, but this is about players whose real teams are playing but perhaps they are a backup QB in reality but starting on the sim field for one of our sim teams.

We have had very simple default updates and not a lot of variation based upon grades, but I'm looking to enhance that a bit. We want to make sure teams are aware of these discussions and possible changes as it could effect their free agent or trade choices -- especially at QB or backup QB positions.

This could also be very important for players who get more opportunities within the sim than they got in reality. Such as a QB who attempts few passes for a run-heavy team in reality but is always behind in the sim and throwing a lot more. Or a RB who splits real carries with a smaller weekly update who happens to be featured for a sim team and getting more carries beyond his update attempts.

Here's what we've done in the past.

If QB grade above 5.0 (70 in Madden), 11-for-21 for 160 yards, 1 TD / 1 INT
If QB grade below 5, 9-for-19 for 90 yards, 0 TD / 1 INT

Also those default completion percentages would be adjusted (as all QBs) based upon the quality of the WR + OL grades versus the defense grades. So a 52% passer could be 67% passer if his team gave him a maximum performance bonus with superior supporting cast. If he was on a bad team with negative grade supporting cast impace, he could be 37% passer in that difficult matchup.


RB over 70, 10 rushes for 30 yards with 1 reception for 7.
RB under 70, 7 rushes for 18 yards.

A RB would only get that update if they were healthy but riding the bench in reality with low/no carries but a feature back in the sim. Their average per rush would also go up/down based upon offensive line grade versus defense, and their actual number of rushes and yards would be determined play-by-play within team circumstances but their average would be based upon that update.


To better deal with cases like an elite team benching Peyton Manning for the last two weeks of the season in reality (with playoffs clinched) but our sim team desperately needing him to play their usual performance for them, I'd like to extend our default updates to take into account more highly graded players who are also on the bench. It's possible we could generate averaged performances (like we do with byes) but that just gets overwhelming to manage with multiple leagues and so many games every week.

Very open to other thoughts on this, but I'd like a much more detailed default update hierarchy of performance covering players rated in the 90s, 80s, 70s, and below. I don't believe default updates should be amazing, but need to be high enough (and considering the grade impacts as well) to be workable in several different situations. I'll try to put more of my suggestions together on this soon, but want to also throw it out there for others as well to propose theirs.

[charlie813brown]

I think the most important place for this is QBs in our leagues. If you don't have an actual starting QB, it doesn't matter how good the players grade is, you are likely winning between 0-4 games that season. This seems a little unrealistic, as someone like Kevin Kolb 2 years ago was riding the pine and giving a team a crappy chance to win, but because he starts in Arizona now, he is considered a better player in the league only for the mere chance he starts. I understand we can't make this like Madden football and real updates are crucial for our realism, however, I would like to see the disparity of not having a starting QB minimized slightly. We could look at Football Prospectives DVOR for the QBs of past years and try to find what a "replacement" level QB would bring to the table each week.

[Ben C.]

My solution would be to use a player's season average from the year before. It shouldn't be too difficult to calculate going forward if most of the stats are being added to the database regularly, and would take into account more than just the player's rating.

The biggest downside would be players that only have a few starts under their belts, such as Matt Flynn. We could add a minimum number of games to qualify for the use of season average default updates, such as 4 games played the season before. If a player doesn't qualify for that, then just use the same updates we've been using for the last 5 years.

[whteshark]

I like the default settings. It rewards teams that go out and get a QB or draft a QB that is successful--the most important position on the field. For those teams that don't they pay a heavy price in the win/loss columns.

The real NFL goes through this every year as teams looking for a QB rotate them in and out of the line up looking for their field general. The teams that don't find one usually struggle.

[Onyxgem]

I like the default settings. It rewards teams that go out and get a QB or draft a QB that is successful--the most important position on the field. For those teams that don't they pay a heavy price in the win/loss columns.

The real NFL goes through this every year as teams looking for a QB rotate them in and out of the line up looking for their field general. The teams that don't find one usually struggle.

The big problem I have with leaving it as it was is that there are some teams who like to keep 2 NFL starting QB on their teams no matter the price you try to get one they don't want to move it. Because lets face it you have no QB you are not winning anything and if one gets hurt you kind of screwed. So it really makes this a QB sim to the point where if you know you are not going to have a starting QB why field a solid team anyway you are not going to win.

However in the NFL usually teams want a solid backup they don't have to pay as much to and 2 starting QB are not going to sign with the same teams but here they have no say if they would sign with a team already that has a starting QB.

[Goodell]

If you're an elite team with great grades, a default QB becomes a near 70% passer with the max upgrade with stronger supporting cast than defense. So I think teams can win with default updates, but I'd agree it isn't as likely and most teams aren't amongst the elite power grades. If you have poor grades or about equal to your competition, it certainly doesn't help much versus the real update.

But as mentioned during the season when those things came up, that's what the off-season rules discussions are for to try to make necessary tweaks.

Using last year's average is definitely something to consider. Like anything, could be some potential loopholes to exploid such as if an all-pro had great numbers last year but suffered a career-threatening injury but still hanging on as a backup teams could possibly sign that player (whose grade is lower now) and take advantage of updates from when they were healthier last year. Probably not something you'd see a lot, but there are lots of injuries in NFL and sometimes one season to the next could be very different for some players. Running backs, for example, sometimes can lose it quickly and go from very good season to backup the next.

But that might end up being better than assigning defaults based upon grades only where there are clearly some areas for improvement in doing that as we have also.

I don't think we're terribly off in terms of completion percentage, as we need some room for the grades to shift that either + or - 15% either way based upon the matchup. But if we ended up sticking with grades determining that, we'd want to have much more differentiation in quality of player (right now just above or below 70) and more favorable defaults with higher grades, and probably do more with yardage than we're currently doing especially in an increasingly pass-happy league.

I'm going to try to do some tweaks to the game simulator and probably rely more upon those default upgrades (either based upon grades or possibly last year's averages) more than we do once a player goes beyond their update. So if a 90-rated QB only has 20 passes in his real game update but throws 30 times in the sim those last 10 would be based more upon his general quality than re-emphasizing exactly how he performed in that one game with less attempts. That should help with some of the odd situations like a guy only throwing 10 times but completing 8 of them and having that translate to nearly 32-for-40 if the sim game has a lot of passing. He'd be brilliant in his first 10 sim throws for us too, but from there be a little more like his usual self. Same if a star QB was playing in brutal wind conditions with few throws and only hit 5-for-12 in reality but is a pro-bowl quality guy who that shouldn't translate to 16-for-40 in a sim game with more throws.

So this would impact real backups but possibly also increasingly in situations where player gets more attempts in the sim than reality.

I think it would be easier to do that with grades. Average from last year would be more individualized and arguably better results other than those odd situations. If we did that, I'd probably want to run those calculations this off-season and build them into a permanent record of the player's database than having to re-calculate past averages often as we might be using default updates more and wanting higher quality results.

[Ulrich82]

Instead of just using last year, you could average a players stats over the past three years. The problem is it would help older players on the downslope hold on longer. However, it would provide a better sample size especially for a player who plays sparingly. It also would help keep a one year wonder who goes back to being a backup from being overrated in the sim.

[Royce R]

I've used Vince Young and Kerry Collins for years. Many times i've had to go with the one that wasn't starting because the defualt was always better than either of them would play. Becuase i fielded the best Oline in the league for quite some time. I went to the playoffs using Default Kerry Collins one year. Won the SB using the real Kerry Collins another year. And if you were to use his averages he would still be good even though we all seen what happened when he got his chance to play.

Long story short, leave it alone

[Jared A]

I actually would suggest adding another pick to players under 70. Many QB's will have worse real life stats than that when they play.

[Goodell]

I've used Vince Young and Kerry Collins for years. Many times i've had to go with the one that wasn't starting because the defualt was always better than either of them would play. Becuase i fielded the best Oline in the league for quite some time. I went to the playoffs using Default Kerry Collins one year. Won the SB using the real Kerry Collins another year. And if you were to use his averages he would still be good even though we all seen what happened when he got his chance to play.

Long story short, leave it alone

Thanks for that example. I think I might have either won a game or two or played decently when I had to go with default QB as well.

The quality of the team matters a lot, both in reality and here. My Broncos had to play Bubby Brister some during Elway's last runs to the Super Bowl. They were okay with a great line, great RB and not asking him to do too much. They had a great team around him (not unlike Royce's example from the sim). Take a team like today's Colts, though, with a bad supporting cast it seems. Have Peyton Manning and you're either a playoff team or at least pushing for that, but without him you're worst in the league. So some people think having a quality QB is over-emphasized here, but I think that's reality. If you have a bad team and a great QB you can still go pretty far in real/sim, but if your great QB goes down and you have to rely upon backup you're going to be like the Indy Colts both in reality and here.

That said, there are cases where a real team will bench a star QB or RB if they've clinched the playoffs, where our sim team might desperately need them. I probably don't have time to micromanage those situations and figuring out which players are effected that way and which sim teams need that situation addressed with different updates. Best I think to adjust the system so that if Tom Brady is benched in reality but healthy as his team has clinched, that our sim team doesn't get the low defaults we have now for anyone rated 71-99 getting the same update but tweak that a little.