2010 RULES: Injury Adjustment
Posted: Mon Mar 01, 2010 5:48 pm
We currently adjust grades as well as averaged updates for player health. If a player marked doubtful it's 75%, questionable 85%, and probable we used 99%. For example, Player X with grade 6.0 and averaged update (for byes and playoff games) of 20 runs for 60 yards.
If Doubtful:
Grade: 4.5 | Update: 15-45
If Questionable:
Grade: 5.1 | Update: 17-51
If Probable:
Grade: 5.9 | Update: 20-59
Remember that if the player was active (not on bye or sim playoff game while sitting at home in reality) we'd use their real performance update, but this was somewhat apparent as a possible issue with injured players having pretty good updates (undeserved?) in the playoffs.
It seemed to me that grades (with smaller numbers) were being hit a lot harder due to injuries than weekly updates where even a doubtful player still was getting a decent update while his grade took a huge hit, which meant that lineman or defensive players were hurt much more by injuries than skill position players.
When the number of sim chances vary depending upon game conditions, a 15-45 update isn't completely different from a 20-59 update despite a big difference between a 5.9 and 4.5 grade under those same circumstances, making a barely walking doubtful player still pretty productive in the sim with his 75% update.
My proposal to deal with that would be to keep the 75%, 85%, 99% applied toward grades, but multiply that injury downgrade TWICE or more toward averaged updates. For example...
If Doubtful:
Grade: 4.5 | Update: 15-45 * .75 again => 11-34
If Questionable:
Grade: 5.1 | Update: 17-51 * .85 again => 14-43
If Probable:
Grade: 5.9 | Update: 20-59 * .99 again => 20-59
There may be better ways of doing this also, including changing the 75/85/99 injury levels to more like 50% / 75% / 95% or something to bring hurt player grades/updates down further.
If Doubtful (and 50% instead):
Grade: 3.0 | Update: 10-30
If Questionable (and 75% instead):
Grade: 4.5 | Update: 15-45
If Probable (and 95% instead):
Grade: 5.7 | Update: 19-57
We went with 99% instead of 95% last year because probable players most of the time seemed like they were locks to play and be pretty much themselves and 95% took grades down too far for that arguably.
Automatic Injury Updates in Playoffs:
In the playoffs we also currently keep up with real injury status for active players and automatically bumped players up one level at the start of the playoffs and before the bowl game assuming that with extra rest and game importance players more likely to give it a go. That was an attempt to take out some of the subjectivity in deciding if a non-active player would likely play or not in our sim playoff games and just automatically change a player's injury level being bumped up on notch in the playoffs and another if making it to the bowl game with 2 weeks rest.
If Doubtful:
Grade: 4.5 | Update: 15-45
If Questionable:
Grade: 5.1 | Update: 17-51
If Probable:
Grade: 5.9 | Update: 20-59
Remember that if the player was active (not on bye or sim playoff game while sitting at home in reality) we'd use their real performance update, but this was somewhat apparent as a possible issue with injured players having pretty good updates (undeserved?) in the playoffs.
It seemed to me that grades (with smaller numbers) were being hit a lot harder due to injuries than weekly updates where even a doubtful player still was getting a decent update while his grade took a huge hit, which meant that lineman or defensive players were hurt much more by injuries than skill position players.
When the number of sim chances vary depending upon game conditions, a 15-45 update isn't completely different from a 20-59 update despite a big difference between a 5.9 and 4.5 grade under those same circumstances, making a barely walking doubtful player still pretty productive in the sim with his 75% update.
My proposal to deal with that would be to keep the 75%, 85%, 99% applied toward grades, but multiply that injury downgrade TWICE or more toward averaged updates. For example...
If Doubtful:
Grade: 4.5 | Update: 15-45 * .75 again => 11-34
If Questionable:
Grade: 5.1 | Update: 17-51 * .85 again => 14-43
If Probable:
Grade: 5.9 | Update: 20-59 * .99 again => 20-59
There may be better ways of doing this also, including changing the 75/85/99 injury levels to more like 50% / 75% / 95% or something to bring hurt player grades/updates down further.
If Doubtful (and 50% instead):
Grade: 3.0 | Update: 10-30
If Questionable (and 75% instead):
Grade: 4.5 | Update: 15-45
If Probable (and 95% instead):
Grade: 5.7 | Update: 19-57
We went with 99% instead of 95% last year because probable players most of the time seemed like they were locks to play and be pretty much themselves and 95% took grades down too far for that arguably.
Automatic Injury Updates in Playoffs:
In the playoffs we also currently keep up with real injury status for active players and automatically bumped players up one level at the start of the playoffs and before the bowl game assuming that with extra rest and game importance players more likely to give it a go. That was an attempt to take out some of the subjectivity in deciding if a non-active player would likely play or not in our sim playoff games and just automatically change a player's injury level being bumped up on notch in the playoffs and another if making it to the bowl game with 2 weeks rest.